The ACEGES: Supporting Energy Policy

ACEGES is an agent-based model for exploratory energy policy by means of controlled computational experiments. ACEGES is designed to be the foundation for large custom-purpose simulations of the global energy system. The full version of the ACEGES is based on i) the MASON library, ii) the R Project for statistical computing, iii) the ECJ, which is an evolutionary computation system written in Java, and iv) the GAMLSS framework. The main authors of the ACEGES software are:
  • Dr. Vlasios Voudouris (primarily for the core ACEGES model)
  • Prof Mikis Stasinopoulos (primarily for the statistical modelling of the agents)
  • Dr. Konstantinos Skindilias (primarily for spot and futures oil prices)
  • Dr. Ken'ichi Matsumoto (primarily for gas demand and production)
Other contributors are Dr. Robert Rigby (for distributions - STORM), Prof. Paul Eilers (for smoothers for oil and gas EUR - Erasmus University) and Carlo Di Maio (Bocconi University). We would also like to acknowledge the sustantial support from Dr. John Hallock (SUNY), Prof. Michael Jefferson and Prof. John Sedgwick.

ACEGES Stands for Agent-based Computational Economics of the Global Energy System. For more information, please contact Dr. Vlasios Voudouris at vls@aceges.org.

Screenshots and Movies

See the ACEGES manual for the basic functionalities of the ACEGES 1.0. The methodological framework is discussed in Voudouris (2011) by extending Voudouris (2010). Jefferson and Voudouris (2011) discuss how the ACEGES decision-support tool can be used for Energy Scenarios satisfying the generative explanation. The ACEGES model has been used for the contribution to the House of Commons Energy and Climate Change Committee (inquiry into The UK's Energy Supply: Security or Independence? ) by Dr. Vlasios Voudouris.

The two interactive graphs below show the evolution of the oil and gas markets to 2010. Using ACEGES, these evolutions can be extented into the future using a user-defined set of ACEGES-based scenarios

Click Thumbnail for Image. These are based on a single simulation from 2002 to 2100!
World Map: Oil Production. This is a choropleth (from red to black) map of country-specific oil production. Quicktime Movie. World Map: Oil Production Growth. This is a choropleth (from blue to red) map of country-specific poduction growth. Quicktime Movie.
World Map: Export Capacity. This is a choropleth (from red to black) map of country-specific export capacity. Quicktime Movie. World Map: Pre-Peak Net Producers. This shows Post-Peak (yellow) and Pre-Peak (black) Net Producers. Quicktime Movie.
Probabilistic forecast of world oil production. This is based on a scenario designed by Voudouris et. al. (2011) for the Energy Policy journal. World Map: Animation for a number of simulations. This is a choropleth map of country-specific production. FlashPlayer Movie.